Global Month Ahead: Iranian elections, Russia's presidential election, UK spring budget
General Policy
|Welcome back to the Global Month Ahead, Global Counsel's briefing on the events and stories that will define the month to come.
General Policy
Welcome back to the Global Month Ahead, Global Counsel's briefing on the events and stories that will define the month to come.
General Policy
The world is undergoing rapid change, but the direction of developments is not always obvious. This is especially so in 2024. Our ten macro themes reflect this reality. Governments, corporates and investors around the world will have to deal with an uncertain environment and ensure they are prepared for a wide range of outcomes and risks.
General Policy
On this month’s episode, Associate Director Isabelle Trick is joined by UK Director Alex Dawson, Senior Practice Director Thomas Gratowski, and Associate Olga Henkele, to discuss the UK party conference season, the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, the European Council Summit and the Polish elections.
General Politics
A GC team has just returned from Hong Kong, where we held discussions with a series of private domestic and foreign investors about the outlook for China. Many pointed out how private investment, from both domestic and foreign sources, is declining just as China needs more of it. Geopolitics is partly to blame, but an uncertain domestic political environment is also…
General Policy
This month, Isabelle Trick is joined by Ed King to preview the upcoming G7 summit, Thomas Gratowski looks towards pivotal elections in Turkey, and Alexander Smotrov explains tensions over grain exports among EU nations and Ukraine.
General Politics
Welcome back to the Global Month Ahead, your preview of the key events of the month to come.
General Policy
The world economy enters the new year on shaky ground. The post-pandemic rebound is losing steam. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the geopolitical fallout is being felt across the globe. Inflation, rising interest rates and the strong US dollar are impacting countries in every region of the world. Major advanced economies are set to slow – or even contract - in 2023,…
General Politics
Associate Director Jens Presthus is joined by Senior Practice Director Thomas Gratowski to discuss China's remarkable reversals regarding covid policy.
General Policy
Welcome back to the Global Month Ahead, our monthly podcast looking at the stories that will define the month to come.
General Politics
Welcome back to the Global Month Ahead, Global Counsel's briefing on the events and stories that will define the month to come. In each episode, Global Macro Associate Director Isabelle Trick will hear from different members of the GC team to preview the month's stories before they are in the headlines.
Trade & Manufacturing
What seemed the most extreme of scenarios three weeks ago is now slowly becoming a reality: an embargo against Russian oil exports. Joe Biden, the US president, has announced that the US would ban the import of Russian oil and the UK’s business and energy secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, has said Britain would phase out Russian oil imports by the end of 2022. These…
General Policy
On Wednesday morning, Russian troops entered Ukraine. As stressed by policymakers in London, Washington, and Brussels, everything is now on the table in terms of further sanctions against Russia. Whatever new measures might ensue-and depending on Russia’s counter-response-the immediate costs and possible risks for investors and corporates in the region have never been…
General Policy
Global Counsel’s recovery dashboard takes the pulse of the global economy. It shows how hot or cold the current recovery is in historical perspective with regards to industrial production, trade, confidence and growth. The dashboard also draws on high frequency data to show the current state of disruption and rebound in G20 economies. In addition, it relies on latest…
General Politics
Germany’s grand coalition of Christian and Social Democrats will soon be history. Despite its comfortable majority – the next government may be jealous – there is a sense that Chancellor Merkel’s fourth government has deferred big policy choices to its successor. Even in the few areas where it has set a new policy direction, in part to deal with the pandemic, major…
General Politics
With the German parliamentary elections and Angela Merkel’s departure after sixteen years, the scene seems set for profound changes, with months of coalition haggling ahead. But with a change of players and, maybe, a change of parties, will much really change in German politics? And how will that affect policy at home and in the EU?
General Politics
Denzil Davidson, Adviser and Thomas Gratowski, Practice Lead, Global Macro discuss Germany's states elections, ahead of the federal elections in September, what the state elections tell us about the future of German politics and what it means for the EU.
General Policy
Global Macro Practice Lead Thomas Gratowski, and Senior Associates Isabelle Trick and Brigitta Kinadi examine how Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are approaching covid-19 vaccines and look at how well different emerging markets are positioned to achieve vaccine targets. They also explore how countries have handled the transmission of cases and and when we might be able to…
General Policy
Saudi Arabia and Qatar agreed to settle their dispute at the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in al-Ula earlier this month. Despite uncertainty until the last minute, Bahrain, Egypt and the UAE followed the Saudi lead and grudgingly restored land, sea and air transport links with Qatar. Riyadh’s willingness – and in the end eagerness – to end the crisis was prompted…