Insights

General Policy icon

Position for uncertainty: global macro themes for 2024

General Policy

David Skilling
|

The world is undergoing rapid change, but the direction of developments is not always obvious. This is especially so in 2024. Our ten macro themes reflect this reality. Governments, corporates and investors around the world will have to deal with an uncertain environment and ensure they are prepared for a wide range of outcomes and risks.

Read more
General Policy icon

Global Month Ahead: UK party conference season, IMF and World Bank annual meetings, European Council Summit

General Policy

Alex Dawson
|

On this month’s episode, Associate Director Isabelle Trick is joined by UK Director Alex Dawson, Senior Practice Director Thomas Gratowski, and Associate Olga Henkele, to discuss the UK party conference season, the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, the European Council Summit and the Polish elections.

Read more
General Politics

Declining private investment casts shadow over China’s economic outlook

General Politics

David Skilling
|

A GC team has just returned from Hong Kong, where we held discussions with a series of private domestic and foreign investors about the outlook for China. Many pointed out how private investment, from both domestic and foreign sources, is declining just as China needs more of it. Geopolitics is partly to blame, but an uncertain domestic political environment is also…

Read more
General Policy icon

Global Month Ahead: Turkish elections, G7 summit, and a grain deal in Ukraine

General Policy

Alexander Smotrov
|

This month, Isabelle Trick is joined by Ed King to preview the upcoming G7 summit, Thomas Gratowski looks towards pivotal elections in Turkey, and Alexander Smotrov explains tensions over grain exports among EU nations and Ukraine.

Read more
General Politics

Global Month Ahead: IMF-World Bank Meetings, Elections in Bulgaria, and the Anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement

General Politics

Gvidas Venckaitis
|

Welcome back to the Global Month Ahead, your preview of the key events of the month to come.

Read more
General Policy icon

Macro matters: Global themes for 2023

General Policy

Ed King
|

The world economy enters the new year on shaky ground. The post-pandemic rebound is losing steam. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the geopolitical fallout is being felt across the globe. Inflation, rising interest rates and the strong US dollar are impacting countries in every region of the world. Major advanced economies are set to slow – or even contract - in 2023,…

Read more
General Politics

What's next for China's covid policy?

General Politics

Jens Presthus
|

Associate Director Jens Presthus is joined by Senior Practice Director Thomas Gratowski to discuss China's remarkable reversals regarding covid policy.

Read more
General Policy icon

The Global Month Ahead: China-Arab summit, US-Africa Leaders meeting and interest rate decisions

General Policy

Ahmed Helal
|

Welcome back to the Global Month Ahead, our monthly podcast looking at the stories that will define the month to come.

Read more
General Politics

Global Month Ahead: Elections in Brazil, China's National Congress, the EU Energy Crisis, and fears of a global recession

General Politics

Anikó Zsebik
|

Welcome back to the Global Month Ahead, Global Counsel's briefing on the events and stories that will define the month to come. In each episode, Global Macro Associate Director Isabelle Trick will hear from different members of the GC team to preview the month's stories before they are in the headlines.

Read more
Trade and Manufacturing icon

How an international embargo against Russian oil could work

Trade & Manufacturing

Thomas Gratowski
|

What seemed the most extreme of scenarios three weeks ago is now slowly becoming a reality: an embargo against Russian oil exports. Joe Biden, the US president, has announced that the US would ban the import of Russian oil and the UK’s business and energy secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, has said Britain would phase out Russian oil imports by the end of 2022. These…

Read more
General Policy icon

The Ukraine invasion - a global perspective

General Policy

Alexander Smotrov
|

On Wednesday morning, Russian troops entered Ukraine. As stressed by policymakers in London, Washington, and Brussels, everything is now on the table in terms of further sanctions against Russia. Whatever new measures might ensue-and depending on Russia’s counter-response-the immediate costs and possible risks for investors and corporates in the region have never been…

Read more
General Policy icon

Road to recovery dashboard

General Policy

Ed King
|

Global Counsel’s recovery dashboard takes the pulse of the global economy. It shows how hot or cold the current recovery is in historical perspective with regards to industrial production, trade, confidence and growth. The dashboard also draws on high frequency data to show the current state of disruption and rebound in G20 economies. In addition, it relies on latest…

Read more
General Politics

Germany’s grand coalition leaves big choices to its successor

General Politics

Thomas Gratowski
|

Germany’s grand coalition of Christian and Social Democrats will soon be history. Despite its comfortable majority – the next government may be jealous – there is a sense that Chancellor Merkel’s fourth government has deferred big policy choices to its successor. Even in the few areas where it has set a new policy direction, in part to deal with the pandemic, major…

Read more
General Politics

Could Olaf Scholz be the new Chancellor of Germany?

General Politics

Thomas Gratowski
|

With the German parliamentary elections and Angela Merkel’s departure after sixteen years, the scene seems set for profound changes, with months of coalition haggling ahead. But with a change of players and, maybe, a change of parties, will much really change in German politics? And how will that affect policy at home and in the EU?

Read more
General Politics

German state elections and life after Merkel

General Politics

Thomas Gratowski
|

Denzil Davidson, Adviser and Thomas Gratowski, Practice Lead, Global Macro discuss Germany's states elections, ahead of the federal elections in September, what the state elections tell us about the future of German politics and what it means for the EU.

Read more
General Policy icon

Rolling out the covid-19 vaccine in emerging markets

General Policy

Thomas Gratowski
|

Global Macro Practice Lead Thomas Gratowski, and Senior Associates Isabelle Trick and Brigitta Kinadi examine how Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are approaching covid-19 vaccines and look at how well different emerging markets are positioned to achieve vaccine targets. They also explore how countries have handled the transmission of cases and and when we might be able to…

Read more
General Policy icon

Reconciliation alone won’t revive the GCC’s economic project

General Policy

Thomas Gratowski
|

Saudi Arabia and Qatar agreed to settle their dispute at the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in al-Ula earlier this month. Despite uncertainty until the last minute, Bahrain, Egypt and the UAE followed the Saudi lead and grudgingly restored land, sea and air transport links with Qatar. Riyadh’s willingness – and in the end eagerness – to end the crisis was prompted…

Read more
General Politics

Tech and trade: how hot is the Israel-UAE peace deal?

General Politics

Thomas Gratowski
|

Did Israel get a sweet deal with the United Arab Emirates, and the latter little in return? Critics would say yes. Abu Dhabi broke with the traditional Arab position, requiring the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital in return for recognition. All Israel had to do was to suspend its rather dubious annexation plans. But this criticism…

Read more