Insights

A GC team has just returned from Hong Kong, where we held discussions with a series of private domestic and foreign investors about the outlook for China. Many pointed out how private investment, from both domestic and foreign sources, is declining just as China needs more of it. Geopolitics is partly to blame, but an uncertain domestic political environment is also…

This month, Isabelle Trick is joined by Ed King to preview the upcoming G7 summit, Thomas Gratowski looks towards pivotal elections in Turkey, and Alexander Smotrov explains tensions over grain exports among EU nations and Ukraine.

Welcome back to the Global Month Ahead, your preview of the key events of the month to come.

The world economy enters the new year on shaky ground. The post-pandemic rebound is losing steam. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the geopolitical fallout is being felt across the globe. Inflation, rising interest rates and the strong US dollar are impacting countries in every region of the world. Major advanced economies are set to slow – or even contract - in 2023,…

Associate Director Jens Presthus is joined by Senior Practice Director Thomas Gratowski to discuss China's remarkable reversals regarding covid policy.

Welcome back to the Global Month Ahead, our monthly podcast looking at the stories that will define the month to come.

Welcome back to the Global Month Ahead, Global Counsel's briefing on the events and stories that will define the month to come. In each episode, Global Macro Associate Director Isabelle Trick will hear from different members of the GC team to preview the month's stories before they are in the headlines.

What seemed the most extreme of scenarios three weeks ago is now slowly becoming a reality: an embargo against Russian oil exports. Joe Biden, the US president, has announced that the US would ban the import of Russian oil and the UK’s business and energy secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, has said Britain would phase out Russian oil imports by the end of 2022. These…

On Wednesday morning, Russian troops entered Ukraine. As stressed by policymakers in London, Washington, and Brussels, everything is now on the table in terms of further sanctions against Russia. Whatever new measures might ensue-and depending on Russia’s counter-response-the immediate costs and possible risks for investors and corporates in the region have never been…

Global Counsel’s recovery dashboard takes the pulse of the global economy. It shows how hot or cold the current recovery is in historical perspective with regards to industrial production, trade, confidence and growth. The dashboard also draws on high frequency data to show the current state of disruption and rebound in G20 economies. In addition, it relies on latest…

Germany’s grand coalition of Christian and Social Democrats will soon be history. Despite its comfortable majority – the next government may be jealous – there is a sense that Chancellor Merkel’s fourth government has deferred big policy choices to its successor. Even in the few areas where it has set a new policy direction, in part to deal with the pandemic, major…

With the German parliamentary elections and Angela Merkel’s departure after sixteen years, the scene seems set for profound changes, with months of coalition haggling ahead. But with a change of players and, maybe, a change of parties, will much really change in German politics? And how will that affect policy at home and in the EU?

Denzil Davidson, Adviser and Thomas Gratowski, Practice Lead, Global Macro discuss Germany's states elections, ahead of the federal elections in September, what the state elections tell us about the future of German politics and what it means for the EU.

Global Macro Practice Lead Thomas Gratowski, and Senior Associates Isabelle Trick and Brigitta Kinadi examine how Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are approaching covid-19 vaccines and look at how well different emerging markets are positioned to achieve vaccine targets. They also explore how countries have handled the transmission of cases and and when we might be able to…

Saudi Arabia and Qatar agreed to settle their dispute at the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in al-Ula earlier this month. Despite uncertainty until the last minute, Bahrain, Egypt and the UAE followed the Saudi lead and grudgingly restored land, sea and air transport links with Qatar. Riyadh’s willingness – and in the end eagerness – to end the crisis was prompted…

Did Israel get a sweet deal with the United Arab Emirates, and the latter little in return? Critics would say yes. Abu Dhabi broke with the traditional Arab position, requiring the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital in return for recognition. All Israel had to do was to suspend its rather dubious annexation plans. But this criticism…

Oman’s new sultan faces a potential binary choice. The 65-year-old Haitham bin Tariq, who acceded to the throne in January, knows that the rial’s peg against the US dollar has guaranteed financial stability for decades. But he has also pledged to continue his predecessor’s independent foreign policy. The country’s long-time leader, Qaboos bin Said, sought to maintain good…

A discussion between Thomas Gratowski, Global Macro Practice Lead, Global Counsel, and John Hughes, Senior Vice President, Albright Stonebridge Group on US-EU continued divergence on sanctions policy post covid-19.