Media Coverage

A trade war and a new Cold War are threatening to rip apart the global economy. That's the springtime message from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

Assessing the IMF's report card, it provided a "fairly positive picture," says Gregor Irwin, chief economist at Global Counsel. "Global prospects are good, one or two clouds on the horizon, concerns about protectionism, concerns about financial vulnerabilities in China."

A recent debate of the Digital Infrastructure Panel (hosted by law firm Herbert Smith Freehills), which included representatives from BT, Hyperoptic and Virgin Media, has highlighted government policy and regulation as the key barrier to large-scale investment in “full fibre” broadband.

Geoffrey Norris, Senior Advisor (Global Counsel), said: “Across the UK political class, ambitions and expectations about broadband and 5G are high and rising, and are likely to lead to Governments of whatever political complexion to become more interventionist in the pursuit or realising them".

US sanctions aimed at punishing Russian oligarchs close to President Vladimir Putin could make your soda habit or luxury car more expensive.

"Businesses just don't want to deal with even a remote risk of getting on the wrong side of US authorities," said Gregor Irwin, chief economist at the political advisory firm Global Counsel.

A new report commissioned by the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) and the National Association of British and Irish Flour Millers (NABIM) from Global Counsel has revealed that the UK's food and drink manufacturing sector could face a hidden 'hard Brexit' once the UK leaves the EU as a result of rules of origin.

In just a few weeks, Britain will begin what could be the country’s most momentous negotiations since joining the EU in the 1970s: talks on how it will trade with Europe for decades to come.

Regulations, frequently the cause of non-tariffs barriers to trade, still often differ. It is also much more difficult than within the EU to ensure that both sides still stick to the deal. “The fundamental difference is that FTAs are agreements between autonomous regulatory jurisdictions that want to stay autonomous,” says Stephen Adams, a former trade adviser to the European Commission.

The term ‘grey rhino’ was coined by American economist Michelle Wucker as a metaphor for looming, high probability events with potentially catastrophic consequences, prefaced by clear signs which people tend to ignore. 

In China, the term (which usually refers to events) has been adapted as a label for a number of large, privately-owned companies, such as Anbang, which have gone on a debt-fuelled foreign spending spree in recent years.

Eurosceptics in the UK’s Conservative party were marking an apparent Brexit victory on Monday after Downing Street said that Britain was “categorically leaving the customs union” while considering two options set out in a “future partnership paper” on customs published last August, both of which have significant shortcomings.

Stephen Adams, a former EU trade negotiator now working at Global Counsel, says this would be “technically phenomenally complicated” and it had another big problem: “It would probably be a bigger undertaking for the EU than the UK.”

Davos, a tiny town in the Swiss mountains, has hosted the annual World Economic Forum for the past 46 years. The rich, powerful and famous mingle over sessions and networking with the stated aim of improving the world.

Gregor Irwin, chief economist at Global Counsel, says "there's inequality between countries and within countries... The global economic system is certainly working for some and it has delivered over the past 10 years an improvement in the living standards of many people. But there are real questions about just how widely shared the benefits are."

Liam Fox, the trade secretary, will legislate next month to take back powers from Brussels to deal with trade disputes, in a move that will force Westminster politicians to grapple with exporters such as China.

“Once British politicians are completely on the hook for these decisions, they will have to think about how they balance the consumer and producer interests in a new way,” said Stephen Adams, a former EU trade official who is now a senior director at Global Counsel, the advisory firm.

The European Union started this year by announcing a global trade offensive to counter rising U.S. protectionism. Now the bloc faces an uphill battle to prove it can deliver.

“When the EU and the U.S. are not aligned, you have a much more fragmented landscape, with no clear leader, and it’s much harder to drive policy,” said Stephen Adams, a former EU trade official now with U.K.-based advisory firm Global Counsel. “The ambition can leak out of the process very quickly.”