Macro advisory

Overview 

Our client held positions in assets in Italy and Germany that were heavily impacted by both political and policy change in those markets. 

Work 

Through dozens of briefings and advisory calls with the client, we provided detailed analysis and forward-looking projections on both political stability of the Italian coalition government and expected policy change in both Italy and Germany. 

We provided rolling analysis of media and interviews with stakeholders to assess the likely direction of policy.  We also delivered frequent hypothesis testing with the client to ensure their financial positions could withstand various political ‘worst case’ scenarios.  

Impact

Drawing on our ongoing advice, the client was better positioned to understand how stakeholders in both jurisdictions were thinking about relevant policy considerations. This allowed the client to better structure its positions and helped inform their exit strategy from both positions.  

Overview 

As a tier one global investment bank with clients and offices across China, Hong Kong, Europe and the U.S., our client faced significant political, reputational and physical risks arising from growing unrest in Hong Kong. Our client needed to quickly understand Beijing, Washington and London’s policy agendas and how growing geopolitical tension was likely to impact both operations and financial markets in the short-, medium-, and long terms. 

Work 

We assessed the root causes of Hong Kong’s protest movement, implications for US and European policy responses and provided real-time on call advice to the client.

We produced a deep-dive report and scenario analysis with very short notice, informed by a dozen stakeholder interviews in Beijing, Washington, Hong Kong and London– and leveraging our direct prior diplomatic experience in Hong Kong.

We provided ongoing on-call advice, drawing on our team’s diplomatic experience and networks.  

Impact

Our insights informed operational and trading decisions made within the client’s C-suite and provided guidance that helped the client understand the longer-term implications of the protest movement – which played out in 2021 as we had forecast they would in 2019.