The road to life after Merkel: what the state elections tell us about the new German politics and what it means for the EU

In-conversation with Denzil Davidson, Advisor and Thomas Gratowski, Practice Lead, Global Macro, discussing Germany states elections. 

Highlights from the discussion:

• German state elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rheinland-Pfalz take place in an important year for Germany and are seen as an electoral test ahead of the federal elections in September. In both states, the major governing party (Greens and SPD) have reinforced their position at the expense of the CDU, which is seen as the biggest loser of these elections.

• Both regional and national factors were responsible for the election outcome, such as the popularity of the green prime minister Winfried Kretschmann, CDU parliamentarians being embroiled in a mask scandal, and growing frustration among the population on the government’s handling of the pandemic.

• The elections were closely watched in Berlin and show the need for the CDU to overcome the mask scandal and improve the management of the covid-19 pandemic as quickly as possible to regain the trust of the German voters. Despite the disappointing results, Laschet is still highly motivated to become Germany’s next chancellor. There are several arguments that argue in his favour, such as being the leader of Germany’s biggest state and the CSU’s commitment to maintain a strong position in Bavaria with Söder.

• State elections are a reminder that the federal elections in September are wide-open. While a coalition between the CDU and the Greens remains most likely based on current polling, a “traffic”-light coalition consisting of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP is also politically feasible. Such a coalition would likely involve more climate-friendly policies, e.g., phasing out coal earlier and a more prominent role for human rights considerations in German foreign policy.