The US elections and the psyche of the American voter

Famed US pollster Frank Luntz joined Global Counsel Chairman Peter Mandelson to share what he is hearing from voters on the campaign trail, and what it means for American politics in 2021 and beyond.

He offered his unique perspective as an observer of the populist movement culminating in Trump’s presidency, which has transformed the Republican Party.

They discussed:

• The undecided voters (approximately 6%) are balancing conflicting emotions when it comes to President Trump and Vice President Biden. While many do not like Trump’s behavior, they feel they personally have benefitted under his policies. Meanwhile, undecided voters feel Biden would be a better leader for America, but they are nervous about the progressive tilt of his policies.  
• Trump has lost much of the suburban voting bloc (especially women) that helped him to victory in 2016. But one group that has moved towards Trump are Hispanic and Latino voters. This explains why Trump is doing better in Florida than in other swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
• Because the majority of Trump supporters will vote in-person while many Biden supporters will vote by mail, it is probable that it will appear on Election Night as if Trump has a lead and thus a victory, much to the fury of Democrats who will decry a “stolen” election. However, if Trump’s lead changes as mail-in ballots are counted in the following days, it will be Republicans denouncing the results, all of which would set up a crisis of confidence in the election outcome.