Brit Risk 2015: Britain’s uncertain election

The outcome of the UK's May 2015 election is uncertain. It is the most open and unpredictable British national election for a generation

• This election may well lead to the first British government to take office as a minority since the 1970s.
• However, some minorities would be a lot more durable than others and the centre-left looks to have a strategic advantage at Westminster.
• The Europe problem will loom large in the wake of the election, but not in the way many assume.
• Any British government will be bound to tough deficit reduction, and neither major party has been clear or fully credible on how this will be achieved.
• A Labour government would aim to follow through on commitments to fixing broken markets and improving living standards in the UK, but a Conservative government would also have its own political incentives to act tough on big business.

This report sets out why we believe these are likely outcomes of May’s vote. It identifies the areas where the election will play an important role in defining policy choices in the next Parliament. Part 1 covers the political landscape in Britain in 2015. Part 2 looks at the most likely compositions of the next Parliament and at what the most likely of those scenarios might mean for policy and politics. Part 3 looks at some of the consequences for Britain in Europe. This report has been written by Global Counsel's team of analysts and economists.