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Global macro and geopolitics

Position for uncertainty: global macro themes for 2024

By
Author
 
First name
Ed
 
King
 
First name
Thomas
 
Gratowski
Body

The world is undergoing rapid change, but the direction of developments is not always obvious. This is especially so in 2024. Our ten macro themes reflect this reality. Governments, corporates and investors around the world will have to deal with an uncertain environment and ensure they are prepared for a wide range of outcomes and risks.

Given this challenging context, GC's Global Macro team has analysed some of the key macro trends and policy developments that will shape 2024 with a focus on themes that present both risks and opportunities for corporates and investors. 

Starter for 10: global macro themes for 2024

  1. A driverless global economy: The global economy is set to bottom out in 2024, as the worlds three largest economies enter a period of slow growth dragging global growth below 3%.
  2. Monetary easing is getting real (somewhat): Slow growth and rising political pressure may prompt major central banks to cut interest rates more quickly than inflation comes down.
  3. The West focuses on its own affairs in an election year: Elections in the UK, EU and US will force politicians to focus their efforts on domestic issues.
  4. Chinese overcapacity adds to rivalry with EU and US: Chinas aggressive policies and overcapacity will strain relations with major Western economies.
  5. Economic interests drive geopolitical diversification: New forms of economic cooperation aim to hedge geopolitical risks and safeguard economic interests.
  6. Taiwan tensions enter a new phase: Cross-strait tensions will enter a new phase with William Lais likely victory in Taiwanese elections, though the risk of direct military conflict seems low.
  7. New and old Asian leaders vie for shifting supply chains: Elections and leadership changes in Asia will continue to shape the rewiring of global supply chains.
  8. Low-income debt crisis exacerbated by great power rifts: Policy response to debt restructuring and additional funding will be marred by geopolitical tensions.
  9. Geopolitics key risk to commodity markets: Though broadly still higher than pre-2021, a lack of demand will put a lid on commodity prices in 2024, with geopolitics likely adding volatility.
  10. US oil dominance challenges OPEC+: Record high US oil production will further reduce the cartels influence this year, though Gulf countries will continue aggressive diversification plans.

 

The views expressed in this report can be attributed to the named author(s) only.