Global Counsel’s recovery dashboard takes the pulse of the global economy. It shows how hot or cold the current recovery is in historical perspective with regards to industrial production, trade, confidence and growth. The dashboard also draws on high frequency data to show the current state of disruption and rebound in G20 economies. In addition, it relies on latest economic forecasts to illustrate current expectations about the shape and pace of the recovery in major economies and how this will impact their market size. The dashboard also reveals how these expectations have changed over time – in part due countries’ performance in pandemic and economic management. Given the critical influence of fiscal policy in explaining the wide divergence in the recovery of G20 economies, the dashboard shows the size of government stimulus spending to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic.
The road to recovery dashboard is updated every other Monday. You can keep up to date with its release, our other latest insights and upcoming events here.
Taking the temperature of the world economy
How “hot” or “cold” is the global economy? This is the first question that our recovery dashboard aims to answer. We put the performance of the global economy as measured by four key indicators into historical perspective, assessing how the latest data compares to ten-year highs - and lows, all of which were found in the early months of the pandemic.
- On the whole, the economy is performing significantly better than during the pandemic. Global GDP growth is at 5.9%, a 10-year high, while both industrial production and merchandise trade have recovered well from the depths of October 2020.
Current disruption and rebound
What is the current level of disruption? Our heatmap aims to show how G20 economies are currently managing the pandemic. We use high frequency data to display the extent and impact of lockdown measures, the early economic impact of and policy response to the pandemic, and the success of vaccination campaigns.
- While some countries have made major steps in lifting travel restrictions, many remain in place across the globe.
- Although not yet reflected in the data, the UK has removed 47 countries from its red list, meaning that people arriving from those destinations will no longer need to spend 11 nights in a quarantine hotel.
- Chile recently reopened for non-essential travel, but Argentina and Uruguay continue to restrict non-essential travel with the hope of reopening its borders in November.
- Despite reopening workplaces, retail and recreation, New Zealand and Australia have announced tighter rules on international travel, only allowing fully vaccinated travellers.
- While Africa continues to struggle, the easing of supply shortages has allowed several Asian economies to accelerate their vaccination efforts.
- China has 70% of its population fully vaccinated, while Japan and South Korea will soon reach that threshold. The latter countries have secured ample supply of vaccines and are unlikely to face major supply issues as they begin their booster shots programmes.
- Confidence in a successful economic recovery remains across regions. The IMF world economic outlook’s marginal revision of global growth projections for 2021 and unchanged projections for 2022 has strengthened most countries’ confidence that they will recover strongly from the pandemic.
The pace and shape of recovery
Which economies are recovering faster than others? Two charts aim to show the pace of the recovery and how big the economic loss due to the pandemic will be at the end of 2022. We look again at G20 economies, assessing current recovery expectations compared with GDP forecasts before the pandemic. We also give a sense of the loss in market size, as measured in US-dollar.
- The divergence of the economic recovery is stark. While the US will recover strongly over the next two years, India's economy is expected to be over 15% smaller by the end of 2022 than was projected before the pandemic.
The race to recovery
Who is winning the race to economic recovery? This part illustrates the success of G20 economies in improving their growth prospects after the initial shock in 2020. We look at how expectations about the pandemic-induced GDP loss by the end of 2022 have changed by comparing latest consensus forecasts with the IMF’s October 2020 projections.
- Current growth expectations in the US and Turkey vastly outweigh expectations from October 2020, and their respective GDPs are now projected to be much larger than had been forecasted prior to the pandemic.
The fiscal advantage
How much money have governments spent on stimulus? Our last chart looks at the extent to which G20 policymakers have put in place economic programmes to stimulate demand in their economies. We provide both the absolute amount and the figure in relation to the size of the respective economy.
- Japan’s fiscal stimulus to fight the pandemic now amounts to 33% of GDP, as new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced new measures. Italy continues to lead the way having spent 49% of its GDP, while huge stimulus packages in the US account for the largest amount spent on tackling covid-19.
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