Insight

Road to recovery dashboard

General Policy

Overview

Global Counsel’s recovery dashboard takes the pulse of the global economy. It shows how hot or cold the current recovery is in historical perspective with regards to industrial production, trade, confidence and growth. The dashboard also draws on high frequency data to show the current state of disruption and rebound in G20 economies. In addition, it relies on latest economic forecasts to illustrate current expectations about the shape and pace of the recovery in major economies and how this will impact their market size. The dashboard also reveals how these expectations have changed over time – in part due countries’ performance in pandemic and economic management. Given the critical influence of fiscal policy in explaining the wide divergence in the recovery of G20 economies, the dashboard shows the size of government stimulus spending to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic. 

The road to recovery dashboard is updated every other Monday. You can keep up to date with its release, our other latest insights and upcoming events here.

Taking the temperature of the world economy

How “hot” or “cold” is the global economy? This is the first question that our recovery dashboard aims to answer. We put the performance of the global economy as measured by four key indicators into historical perspective, assessing how the latest data compares to ten-year highs - and lows, all of which were found in the early months of the pandemic. 

Current disruption and rebound

What is the current level of disruption? Our heatmap aims to show how G20 economies are currently managing the pandemic. We use high frequency data to display the extent and impact of lockdown measures, the early economic impact of and policy response to the pandemic,  and the success of vaccination campaigns.  

The pace and shape of recovery

Which economies are recovering faster than others? Two charts aim to show the pace of the recovery and how big the economic loss due to the pandemic will be at the end of 2022. We look again at G20 economies, assessing current recovery expectations compared with GDP forecasts before the pandemic. We also give a sense of the loss in market size, as measured in US-dollar.    

The race to recovery

Who is winning the race to economic recovery? This part illustrates the success of G20 economies in improving their growth prospects after the initial shock in 2020. We look at how expectations about the pandemic-induced GDP loss by the end of 2022 have changed by comparing latest consensus forecasts with the IMF’s October 2020 projections.

The fiscal advantage

How much money have governments spent on stimulus? Our last chart looks at the extent to which G20 policymakers have put in place economic programmes to stimulate demand in their economies. We provide both the absolute amount and the figure in relation to the size of the respective economy.  

 

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Authors

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