China’s economic recovery, the next five-year plan and the road ahead for Xi Jinping

In conversation with Tom Orlik, Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics, on the outcomes from China's Fifth Plenum, key aspects of the 2021-2025 five-year plan and China's economic recovery.

Highlights of the conversation:

China’s rapid but fragile economic recovery

• China is rebounding faster from the pandemic compared to other major economies in large part because it has managed to effectively contain the virus. However, its investment and export-driven recovery strategy is about to run into trouble as advanced economies in the west return to lockdown.

Boosting domestic demand and industrial self-reliance

• The fifth plenary session of the CPC’s 19th Central Committee ended last week without any major new policies being revealed. Becoming self-reliant in the technology space and shifting to a consumption-driven economy remains the party’s top two priorities for the next 5-15 years.

A challenging international environment

• China is at odds with a growing number of nations, but its commercial relationships have so far not been materially damaged. Trade remains strong with key partners, investment keeps flowing in and western corporates are ignoring calls by politicians in their home countries to move production out of China.